For this project we will use the historic, county level data which is stored as an updating CSV at this URL:

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/nytimes/covid-19-data/master/us-counties.csv

My code for this project can be found in my repository here.

Question 1: Which Counties in California are Safe?

5 California Counties with Most Cumulative COVID Cases
Date County State FIPS Total Cases Total Deaths
2020-08-14 Los Angeles California 06037 218693 5214
2020-08-14 Riverside California 06065 45662 881
2020-08-14 Orange California 06059 42854 789
2020-08-14 San Bernardino California 06071 39395 561
2020-08-14 San Diego California 06073 34128 622
5 California Counties with Most New Daily COVID Cases
Date County State FIPS Total Cases Total Deaths New Cases
2020-08-14 Los Angeles California 06037 218693 5214 2554
2020-08-14 Riverside California 06065 45662 881 915
2020-08-14 Orange California 06059 42854 789 683
2020-08-14 San Bernardino California 06071 39395 561 584
2020-08-14 Santa Clara California 06085 13856 209 516
5 California Counties With the Most COVID Cases Per Capita
Date County State FIPS Cases Deaths Population Cases Per Capita
2020-08-14 Imperial California 06025 10035 256 181215 0.0553762
2020-08-14 Kings California 06031 5310 64 152940 0.0347195
2020-08-14 Kern California 06029 25888 204 900202 0.0287580
2020-08-14 Tulare California 06107 12105 205 466195 0.0259655
2020-08-14 Merced California 06047 6777 89 277680 0.0244058
5 California Counties With the Most New Daily COVID Cases Per Capita
Date County State FIPS Cases Deaths Population New Daily Cases New Daily Cases Per Capita
2020-08-14 Merced California 06047 6777 89 277680 216 0.0007779
2020-08-14 Tulare California 06107 12105 205 466195 258 0.0005534
2020-08-14 Stanislaus California 06099 11953 195 550660 271 0.0004921
2020-08-14 San Joaquin California 06077 14651 261 762148 375 0.0004920
2020-08-14 Fresno California 06019 19157 203 999101 467 0.0004674

Results

Total Number of Cases Per California County
Date County State FIPS Total Cases Total Deaths
2020-08-14 Los Angeles California 06037 218693 5214
2020-08-14 Riverside California 06065 45662 881
2020-08-14 Orange California 06059 42854 789
2020-08-14 San Bernardino California 06071 39395 561
2020-08-14 San Diego California 06073 34128 622
2020-08-14 Kern California 06029 25888 204
2020-08-14 Fresno California 06019 19157 203
2020-08-14 San Joaquin California 06077 14651 261
2020-08-14 Alameda California 06001 14579 219
2020-08-14 Santa Clara California 06085 13856 209
2020-08-14 Sacramento California 06067 13614 199
2020-08-14 Tulare California 06107 12105 205
2020-08-14 Stanislaus California 06099 11953 195
2020-08-14 Contra Costa California 06013 10756 152
2020-08-14 Imperial California 06025 10035 256
2020-08-14 Ventura California 06111 9114 95
2020-08-14 San Francisco California 06075 8056 69
2020-08-14 Santa Barbara California 06083 7274 77
2020-08-14 San Mateo California 06081 6803 126
2020-08-14 Merced California 06047 6777 89
2020-08-14 Monterey California 06053 5925 41
2020-08-14 Marin California 06041 5707 82
2020-08-14 Kings California 06031 5310 64
2020-08-14 Solano California 06095 4601 41
2020-08-14 Sonoma California 06097 4157 51
2020-08-14 Madera California 06039 2924 47
2020-08-14 Placer California 06061 2543 27
2020-08-14 San Luis Obispo California 06079 2439 18
2020-08-14 Yolo California 06113 1966 46
2020-08-14 Santa Cruz California 06087 1383 6
2020-08-14 Butte California 06007 1370 12
2020-08-14 Napa California 06055 1207 11
2020-08-14 Sutter California 06101 1091 7
2020-08-14 El Dorado California 06017 827 2
2020-08-14 San Benito California 06069 815 4
2020-08-14 Yuba California 06115 740 4
2020-08-14 Lassen California 06035 695 0
2020-08-14 Mendocino California 06045 529 10
2020-08-14 Shasta California 06089 488 10
2020-08-14 Colusa California 06011 409 5
2020-08-14 Glenn California 06021 392 3
2020-08-14 Nevada California 06057 372 2
2020-08-14 Humboldt California 06023 309 4
2020-08-14 Tehama California 06103 302 1
2020-08-14 Lake California 06033 263 2
2020-08-14 Amador California 06005 206 11
2020-08-14 Calaveras California 06009 174 1
2020-08-14 Mono California 06051 160 1
2020-08-14 Tuolumne California 06109 160 2
2020-08-14 Siskiyou California 06093 111 0
2020-08-14 Del Norte California 06015 106 0
2020-08-14 Inyo California 06027 97 3
2020-08-14 Mariposa California 06043 64 2
2020-08-14 Plumas California 06063 32 0
2020-08-14 Trinity California 06105 7 0
2020-08-14 Modoc California 06049 5 0
2020-08-14 Sierra California 06091 5 0
2020-08-14 Alpine California 06003 2 0
Total New Cases In Last 14 Days Per California County
County Total New Cases
Los Angeles 28000
Riverside 8050
San Bernardino 6699
Orange 6021
Kern 5827
San Diego 4488
Fresno 4074
Sacramento 3599
Santa Clara 3535
San Joaquin 3090
Alameda 3074
Contra Costa 2950
Stanislaus 2892
Tulare 2651
Merced 2492
Ventura 1593
San Francisco 1330
San Mateo 1259
Monterey 1228
Sonoma 1102
Solano 985
Kings 930
Santa Barbara 899
Madera 888
San Luis Obispo 656
Marin 649
Placer 631
Imperial 626
Butte 429
Yolo 422
Napa 309
Sutter 305
Yuba 255
Santa Cruz 231
Mendocino 212
El Dorado 190
San Benito 172
Shasta 119
Lassen 97
Tehama 89
Glenn 88
Colusa 86
Amador 82
Humboldt 76
Nevada 70
Lake 68
Inyo 52
Calaveras 49
Siskiyou 38
Mono 19
Tuolumne 19
Del Norte 18
Mariposa 8
Plumas 7
Sierra 4
Modoc 3
Trinity 1
Alpine 0
List of Safe Counties
County New Cases Per 100,000 People
Alpine 0.000000
Trinity 8.140008
Modoc 33.932813
Tuolumne 34.876464
Plumas 37.220184
Mariposa 46.503517
Humboldt 56.064563
Del Norte 64.720265
Shasta 66.081741
Nevada 70.171921
Santa Cruz 84.549418
Siskiyou 87.278072
El Dorado 98.525744

As of 8/14/2020, there are a total of 13 safe counties within the state of California that comply to the California Department of Public Health’s criteria of having less than 100 new cases per 100,000 residents over the past 14 days.

Question 2: What Are The Impacts of Scale on Data Interpretation?

Scaling by population had a huge influence on the analysis of the data. If we look at the first graph, it appears that out of the four states, Louisiana has had the least number of new cases as well as the lowest seven day average. While this may be the case, the first graph does not show the entire story. If we look at the second graph it is clear that Louisiana has had the most new daily cases with respect to its population size. The first graph makes Louisiana look the best out of the four states while the second graph makes them look the worst.

Question 3: How Does the Weighted Mean Center of COVID-19 With Respect to Daily Cumulative Cases Move Over Time?

Weighted Mean Center of COVID-19
Date Longitude Latitude
2020-01-21 -121.71707 48.04616
2020-01-22 -121.71707 48.04616
2020-01-23 -121.71707 48.04616
2020-01-24 -104.76683 44.94380
2020-01-25 -109.09942 41.19636
2020-01-26 -111.60366 38.24914
2020-01-27 -111.60366 38.24914
2020-01-28 -111.60366 38.24914
2020-01-29 -111.60366 38.24914
2020-01-30 -107.63915 38.84786
2020-01-31 -109.64744 38.61689
2020-02-01 -104.82632 39.08077
2020-02-02 -109.56226 38.67105
2020-02-03 -109.56226 38.67105
2020-02-04 -109.56226 38.67105
2020-02-05 -107.88345 39.03726
2020-02-06 -107.88345 39.03726
2020-02-07 -107.88345 39.03726
2020-02-08 -107.88345 39.03726
2020-02-09 -107.88345 39.03726
2020-02-10 -108.56428 38.57552
2020-02-11 -108.56428 38.57552
2020-02-12 -107.84690 37.92372
2020-02-13 -107.22516 37.35883
2020-02-14 -107.22516 37.35883
2020-02-15 -107.22516 37.35883
2020-02-16 -107.22516 37.35883
2020-02-17 -102.79544 38.93337
2020-02-18 -102.79544 38.93337
2020-02-19 -102.79544 38.93337
2020-02-20 -103.33011 39.08625
2020-02-21 -103.60991 38.42267
2020-02-22 -103.60991 38.42267
2020-02-23 -103.60991 38.42267
2020-02-24 -104.87364 38.07401
2020-02-25 -104.83642 38.20319
2020-02-26 -109.12713 38.23063
2020-02-27 -109.12713 38.23063
2020-02-28 -109.76143 38.48641
2020-02-29 -110.13587 38.90233
2020-03-01 -111.28243 39.34318
2020-03-02 -110.84800 39.73677
2020-03-03 -111.41056 39.99539
2020-03-04 -110.43084 40.45149
2020-03-05 -109.57127 40.88431
2020-03-06 -105.91102 40.51154
2020-03-07 -103.17446 40.62660
2020-03-08 -102.16590 40.81953
2020-03-09 -101.69395 40.71879
2020-03-10 -100.85471 41.20194
2020-03-11 -100.69147 41.14936
2020-03-12 -100.11315 41.04100
2020-03-13 -99.49278 40.66961
2020-03-14 -98.73068 40.51182
2020-03-15 -97.82688 40.12994
2020-03-16 -97.42345 40.02369
2020-03-17 -95.95321 39.81699
2020-03-18 -94.29335 39.50454
2020-03-19 -92.29172 39.46669
2020-03-20 -90.91587 39.28905
2020-03-21 -89.69085 39.24665
2020-03-22 -88.32427 39.31976
2020-03-23 -87.48503 39.32965
2020-03-24 -86.97769 39.31525
2020-03-25 -86.53779 39.19922
2020-03-26 -86.39417 39.17485
2020-03-27 -86.23480 39.14636
2020-03-28 -85.86856 39.11780
2020-03-29 -85.63779 39.12091
2020-03-30 -85.53937 39.09708
2020-03-31 -85.33641 38.97836
2020-04-01 -85.30439 38.94539
2020-04-02 -85.26500 38.83303
2020-04-03 -85.04924 38.82506
2020-04-04 -84.79665 38.80227
2020-04-05 -84.78927 38.83075
2020-04-06 -84.63674 38.78982
2020-04-07 -84.52521 38.76206
2020-04-08 -84.40693 38.77987
2020-04-09 -84.31782 38.77420
2020-04-10 -84.21198 38.78892
2020-04-11 -84.13272 38.80044
2020-04-12 -84.06709 38.82037
2020-04-13 -84.03929 38.81321
2020-04-14 -84.00306 38.82671
2020-04-15 -83.99264 38.83208
2020-04-16 -83.91224 38.84985
2020-04-17 -83.89523 38.84184
2020-04-18 -83.89550 38.85712
2020-04-19 -83.83987 38.87219
2020-04-20 -83.88699 38.87136
2020-04-21 -83.93430 38.86390
2020-04-22 -83.95172 38.87424
2020-04-23 -83.97351 38.87141
2020-04-24 -83.95671 38.89842
2020-04-25 -83.93350 38.93169
2020-04-26 -83.92616 38.94205
2020-04-27 -83.97609 38.94294
2020-04-28 -84.00412 38.94457
2020-04-29 -84.08529 38.94945
2020-04-30 -84.13108 38.95588
2020-05-01 -84.18588 38.95296
2020-05-02 -84.23169 38.95325
2020-05-03 -84.28534 38.96353
2020-05-04 -84.33448 38.95848
2020-05-05 -84.40191 38.92088
2020-05-06 -84.49053 38.92094
2020-05-07 -84.54138 38.91970
2020-05-08 -84.62434 38.92108
2020-05-09 -84.69220 38.91324
2020-05-10 -84.71519 38.90910
2020-05-11 -84.75117 38.90880
2020-05-12 -84.82251 38.90104
2020-05-13 -84.89029 38.88721
2020-05-14 -84.94867 38.88010
2020-05-15 -85.02617 38.86955
2020-05-16 -85.07265 38.86670
2020-05-17 -85.10408 38.86218
2020-05-18 -85.13873 38.85853
2020-05-19 -85.18965 38.84751
2020-05-20 -85.23754 38.84324
2020-05-21 -85.29254 38.82313
2020-05-22 -85.35285 38.81632
2020-05-23 -85.40926 38.80722
2020-05-24 -85.45220 38.80526
2020-05-25 -85.49331 38.79245
2020-05-26 -85.56468 38.77582
2020-05-27 -85.62234 38.76204
2020-05-28 -85.67491 38.74806
2020-05-29 -85.74917 38.72932
2020-05-30 -85.82956 38.70983
2020-05-31 -85.90242 38.69339
2020-06-01 -85.92935 38.68713
2020-06-02 -86.00930 38.66814
2020-06-03 -86.07574 38.64609
2020-06-04 -86.13834 38.61796
2020-06-05 -86.24506 38.60207
2020-06-06 -86.31346 38.57510
2020-06-07 -86.38953 38.55488
2020-06-08 -86.45131 38.53788
2020-06-09 -86.52351 38.51134
2020-06-10 -86.60789 38.47808
2020-06-11 -86.70034 38.44653
2020-06-12 -86.79663 38.40882
2020-06-13 -86.87967 38.36736
2020-06-14 -86.93781 38.33790
2020-06-15 -87.01233 38.30910
2020-06-16 -87.12264 38.26190
2020-06-17 -87.23474 38.21902
2020-06-18 -87.34211 38.17856
2020-06-19 -87.45942 38.12446
2020-06-20 -87.57452 38.07049
2020-06-21 -87.67669 38.03005
2020-06-22 -87.81014 37.98236
2020-06-23 -87.96173 37.92509
2020-06-24 -88.07434 37.86059
2020-06-25 -88.19211 37.80688
2020-06-26 -88.31346 37.73229
2020-06-27 -88.40881 37.65953
2020-06-28 -88.51749 37.59565
2020-06-29 -88.63156 37.54650
2020-06-30 -88.79183 37.47730
2020-07-01 -88.94386 37.41078
2020-07-02 -89.07329 37.33693
2020-07-03 -89.19582 37.26325
2020-07-04 -89.30387 37.19418
2020-07-05 -89.39400 37.13834
2020-07-06 -89.50053 37.08858
2020-07-07 -89.64421 37.02883
2020-07-08 -89.75740 36.96557
2020-07-09 -89.86446 36.90638
2020-07-10 -89.96094 36.84067
2020-07-11 -90.04487 36.78505
2020-07-12 -90.10546 36.72431
2020-07-13 -90.18247 36.66961
2020-07-14 -90.29348 36.61717
2020-07-15 -90.37757 36.56717
2020-07-16 -90.47719 36.50042
2020-07-17 -90.56824 36.45464
2020-07-18 -90.63250 36.41460
2020-07-19 -90.68759 36.36721
2020-07-20 -90.75303 36.33271
2020-07-21 -90.83156 36.29675
2020-07-22 -90.91668 36.25976
2020-07-23 -90.98507 36.22384
2020-07-24 -91.04009 36.19158
2020-07-25 -91.09721 36.15765
2020-07-26 -91.12223 36.13638
2020-07-27 -91.16355 36.11538
2020-07-28 -91.20853 36.08807
2020-07-29 -91.26840 36.06643
2020-07-30 -91.30760 36.03823
2020-07-31 -91.34928 36.01589
2020-08-01 -91.37966 35.99610
2020-08-02 -91.40530 35.97847
2020-08-03 -91.44212 35.96480
2020-08-04 -91.46604 35.94999
2020-08-05 -91.49265 35.93843
2020-08-06 -91.52876 35.92516
2020-08-07 -91.55374 35.91121
2020-08-08 -91.57558 35.89770
2020-08-09 -91.60149 35.88639
2020-08-10 -91.65928 35.88049
2020-08-11 -91.71091 35.86991
2020-08-12 -91.73814 35.85511
2020-08-13 -91.77382 35.85033
2020-08-14 -91.81580 35.84117
New Cases By Month
Month New Cases
01 41
02 736
03 795581
04 15912347
05 39278587
06 58584943
07 104004324
08 65833670

In order to describe the movement of the COVID-19 weighted mean throughout the USA over 2020, we first need to understand what a weighted mean center is. A weighted mean center is the average X and Y coordinate for a series of points weighted by some other variable. In this specific case, the weighted variable is the daily cumulative cases per county. From the graph, we can see that the weighted mean center moves from left to right until about May, when it starts to move back in the other direction. In theory, this makes sense for various reasons. When looking at the mean center of COVID-19 without the weighting, it is correct to think that the centers would be cluster toward the middle of the USA due to the fact that the majority of cases are split between the two ends of the country in California, Florida, and New York. Once we take into account the weighting, the movement of the centers begins to take shape. Up until mid to late April, New York was peaking in terms of its daily cases, thus explaining the rightward movement of the mean centers until about May. Since then, California’s daily cases have spiked significantly in counties such as Los Angeles, Riverside, and Orange, thus explaining the leftward movement post-May. It will be interesting to continue to see the movement of the weighted mean center of the virus as California and Florida continue to rack up cases.